As the season reaches its final 100 meters, nothing is yet decided in the chaotic Eastern Conference and the race for the NBA Playoffs. The Detroit Pistons lead the way but are being chased by the returning Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics. A six-game winning streak has introduced the New York Knicks to that battle, too.
Further down the pecking order, the Cleveland Cavaliers are stuck in the middle, not good enough to contend for the number one seed but five games clear of the chasing pack.
That chasing pack is the focus here, with teams from 5th down to 10th separated by just two games. The combination of the Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, and Charlotte Hornets contains teams who expected to contend for glory, franchises that are one star away, and rising contenders who didn’t expect to be here so soon.
Success over the last 10 games will determine whether these teams face a winnable first-round matchup with the Cavaliers or miss the NBA Playoffs entirely.
NBA Playoffs: The Race to Avoid The Play-in
Toronto Raptors
Current Record: 39-31
Strength of schedule remaining: 23rd
The Toronto Raptors have built a great defensive team led by two-way star Scottie Barnes, but are still an offensive engine away from competing at the business end of the NBA Playoffs. The trade for Brandon Ingram last season gave Barnes some much-needed offensive support, but Toronto still only ranks 16th in offensive rating.
The Raptors have a kind schedule to end the season, facing four tanking teams. This means they can save their energy for crucial games against conference rivals Orlando and Miami (twice). If Toronto can continue its tough defence (8th in defensive rating) and improve offensively, it’ll be the favourite to claim the 5th seed.
Atlanta Hawks
Current Record: 39-32
Strength of schedule remaining: 8th
The Atlanta Hawks had high expectations at the start of the season. The signing of Kristaps Porzingis to pair with Trae Young had fans dreaming of NBA Playoff contention. The Latvian played just 17 games in Atlanta, and both he and Young were traded before the deadline.
The trades of their two stars were made easier to accept by the emergence of Jalen Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the forward has become a true star, scoring 22 points per game and helping the Hawks win 12 of their last 13. The difficult remaining schedule may mean Atlanta’s form dips as the season ends, but they are still in a good position to claim a playoff spot.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current Record: 39-32
Strength of schedule remaining: 11th
With Paul George suspended and Joel Embiid in and out of the lineup with injury, Tyrese Maxey has carried the 76ers to success this season. The All-Star guard suffered an injury t his pinky at the beginning of March, putting Philadelphia’s NBA Playoff potential at risk.
If Maxey returns soon, the 76ers should have enough to make the playoffs, but without him, Embiid, and George, they are just a collection of young players that will struggle to beat some tanking teams to close the season. Philadelphia’s schedule isn’t a pushover either; they face five contenders and just three tanking teams.
Orlando Magic
Current Record: 38-32
Strength of schedule remaining: 18th
The Magic have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. After two first-round exits, Orlando traded multiple first-round picks to add the sharp-shooting Desmond Bane to their ranks. While Bane has been great, playing every game and averaging 20.4 points on brilliant efficiency, the Magic have failed to live up to their preseason aspirations.
Orlando was supposed to contend for a title this season, but injuries to Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, and now Anthony Black have halted their rise. Wagner has played just four games since spraining his ankle in December, and the Magic will hope it’s the third time lucky with regard to his comeback attempts. If they can get their German star back, Orlando can be dangerous; if not, it will be another first-round exit and likely even more change in Florida this offseason.
Miami Heat
Current Record: 38-33
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 16th
Bam Adebayo’s 83-point game masked a real problem in Miami: they are very average, with no clear path to get better. They already have one of the best coaches in the league in Erik Spoelstra, the young talent on the roster is limited, and they’re too good to tank, leaving no path to a top prospect in the NBA draft.
Miami will definitely make the play-in, but their Jimmy Butler era NBA Playoff runs to the Finals as an 8-seed are no more. A first-round exit is the ceiling for this squad, and a blockbuster trade or a commitment to the rebuild is needed sooner rather than later.
Charlotte Hornets
Current Record: 37-34
Strength of Schedule Remaining: 12th
The Charlotte Hornets have been the surprise team of the regular season and need a strong end to the campaign to break into the NBA Playoffs. The ‘Buzz City Killers’ won nine games in a row in January, followed by a six-game winning streak in February to climb back into the race for the 5th seed.
Led by the rejuvenated Lamelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and rookie sensation Kon Knueppel, the Hornets have the fifth-best offensive rating in the NBA despite an awful beginning to the season. Because of their poor start, Charlotte will struggle to avoid the play-in, but should be able to make some noise once there and could present a huge banana skin to the number 1 seed in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
