Several of the top-seeded players expected to contend for the US Open 2025 title have already been eliminated. From Flushing Meadows in New York, the tournament has reached its second week, and the outright betting landscape looks noticeably different from what it did before the first serve.
Fans and analysts alike are tracking which early favourites have exited and how those departures are reshaping potential title paths. Some hot prospects were knocked out in tight matches, while others struggled from the outset.
As of the quarter-final stage, the market has begun to shift toward players who may not have been among the top odds board favourites before the event began. Understanding which contenders are already out offers clear context for the current board and highlights who still has a realistic path to the trophy.
Stefanos Tsitsipas Failed to Progress
Coming into the tournament, Stefanos Tsitsipas was priced just outside the top three in most outright markets. Known for his ability to take control of rallies and dictate play, he entered with strong form from the North American hardcourt swing. Despite a favourable draw placement, he exited in the second round.
His loss came in five sets, where he struggled with timing and allowed an unseeded opponent to dictate tempo. The match featured a high number of unforced errors, especially from the backhand side. That vulnerability, combined with sluggish returns, proved costly.
Tsitsipas had been a reliable bet to reach at least the second week in previous Slams. His early exit removed one of the most consistent seeds from the bottom half and reshaped the balance of the men’s field. Bettors who backed him early have now turned attention to late-charging names.
Coco Gauff’s Early Exit Shifts the Women’s Draw
Coco Gauff was one of the most-backed names heading into the tournament. Her recent title win and top-four seeding placed her near the front of the outright pricing board. Many expected her to build momentum through the opening rounds, but she fell short of expectations.
Her loss came in straight sets during the fourth round, a surprising outcome given her summer performance. She struggled on serve, landing under 60 per cent of her first deliveries and facing pressure in every return game. Her opponent capitalised by dictating the pace and keeping points short.
Gauff’s early departure caused a notable shift in US Open odds, especially on the women’s side. Her exit narrowed the top tier of title contenders and opened up Osaka’s section of the draw. As the market adjusted, pricing on the remaining leaders tightened while deeper names stayed wide.
Andrey Rublev Couldn’t Break Through Again
Andrey Rublev once again failed to move past the fourth round of a Slam. Despite being seeded in the top eight and carrying strong hard-court credentials, he struggled to convert break points and lacked defensive range.
He opened the tournament with stable play and clear tactical planning. However, against higher-quality opposition, his serve and return patterns became too predictable. His match-ending stats revealed a lopsided winner-to-error ratio and a low percentage of second-serve points won.
Rublev’s pre-tournament odds made him a viable sleeper pick in the outright market. His early loss left a vacuum in his quarter of the draw, allowing mid-tier contenders to push deeper. That void has given players like Fritz and Auger-Aliassime added relevance in updated boards.
Elena Rybakina Missed Her Opportunity
Elena Rybakina was expected to be one of the most dangerous threats to Swiatek. Her flat power and Grand Slam pedigree positioned her as a reliable option for those avoiding short odds. Her early rounds were efficient, but she ran into trouble against a more versatile opponent in the fourth round.
Her loss came in three sets after taking the first, a scenario that typically favours her in hard-court conditions. She dropped serve multiple times late in the match and was broken twice while serving to stay in the decider. That swing erased her from the picture.
Rybakina’s absence shifts the remaining pressure onto Swiatek and Sabalenka. With fewer power baseliners left, the draw now favours players with greater consistency and rally tolerance. The updated board reflects that change, especially in the middle-tier pricing.
Casper Ruud’s Hard-Court Struggles Continue
Casper Ruud entered the US Open with expectations higher than usual, given his improvement on faster surfaces over the past year. His game appeared more balanced, with better depth on returns and increased aggression early in points. However, none of that translated into sustained success.
He exited in the second round, failing to adjust to pace changes and struggling in long rallies. His inability to protect his second serve became a clear target for opponents. Though his match stats were respectable, the lack of key point conversion told the story.
Ruud’s early departure was not the most shocking, but it reinforced his continuing struggles on North American hard courts. His price before the tournament suggested dark horse potential, but the market has now fully corrected. Any further betting attention will shift to more reliable Slam performers.
Maria Sakkari Falls Short Again
Maria Sakkari has developed a reputation for early exits despite strong tour-level performances. That trend continued in New York, where she was eliminated in the third round. Despite entering as a favourite, she lost in straight sets to Beatriz Haddad Maia.
The match exposed weaknesses that have lingered across Slams. Her serve lacked bite, and she struggled to find depth on key groundstrokes. Most notably, she failed to hold serve consistently, especially late in the second set.
Her loss was extensively covered in tennis news, highlighting once again the growing disconnect between her WTA ranking and her Grand Slam results. Her pre-tournament odds suggested optimism that she could finally break through, but the early loss has erased her from contention once again. The women’s outright market rarely tolerates this level of inconsistency, and pricing going forward will reflect her fading Slam credentials.
How the Market Has Reacted
Each of these exits has changed the makeup of the outright markets. Lines that once spread across a dozen names now focus on a core group of four to six. Eliminations of second-tier favourites have opened doors for longer shots to surge into relevance.
Books are also reacting faster between rounds. Price movement is no longer based solely on seed or ranking. It now reflects first-come, first-served statistics, game time per match, and court positioning. Players still standing have had to demonstrate that true greatness relies on more than just history.
